According to the first poll taken since the September primary, Cuomo is ahead in the gubernatorial race by a 25 point margin. However, the poll also revealed that Gov. Cuomo's job approval rating is declining. Over half of those who responded to the poll believe that the state is working towards the wrong direction. Despite Cuomo's lower approval rating, he holds a significant advantage over Astorino, which may translate into a win on election day. A similar poll conducted in 2010 between Cuomo and his former opponent, Carl Paladino, revealed that Cuomo was ahead by only six points. This rather small difference, however, resulted in him winning 63% of the votes. So, the currently large gap between him and Astorino may result in an even greater victory, if the pattern persists, that is. One of the provided explanations as to why Astorino is the unfavorable candidate thus far is recent campaigning marking him as too conservative. I actually viewed a commercial a couple of days ago that labeled him as "ultra-conservative" and continued to criticize his policies and plans. Because of this campaign, Cuomo is successfully establishing a negative reputation for Astorino among the voters in the state of New York.
I think this article provides substantial statistical information to make an informed prediction regarding who wins the gubernatorial race. However, the numbers aren't always correct. While this information may provide the Cuomo campaign a momentary sigh of relief, their work is far from done. In regards to our election simulation, these data may not be as relevant because of other factors that go into the choices of underclassmen on election day (such as who had the best bake sales). Nonetheless, this article reveals the current opinion of a selected representation of New Yorkers that is pretty reassuring to the democrats.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/despite-tough-primary-cuomo-holds-wide-lead-poll-1411509637
It's really interesting that Cuomo's approval ratings are decreasing, yet he is the more favorable candidate. Perhaps voters would much rather keep him than elect an "ultra conservative" to govern our very blue state despite the fact that he may be harming our state more than he is helping it in the right direction. This goes to show how much partisanship can really impact our elections.
ReplyDeleteI would honestly be very surprised if a conservative like Rob Astorino posed any significant threat to Cuomo in New York. Cuomo is much like Obama during his own reelection; yes, Obama's approval ratings were declining and the opposition was stronger, but the country clearly favored him over Mitt Romney.
ReplyDeleteThe fact that Cuomo is still ahead of Astorino in spite of his declining approval rating is interesting. Looking at the approval ratings, neither candidate seems to be really favorable right now. But Cuomo is still beating out Astorino at the moment. This reinforces the idea that politicians are not necessarily elected based on their own merits, but simply for being more favorable than their opponents (perhaps by being of a certain political party).
ReplyDeleteHaving a democrat significantly ahead in the polls in New York is not very surprising. On average, New York is a liberal state and it would be surprising to see a republican ahead in the polls.
ReplyDeleteI predict that New Yorkers would still reelect Cuomo out of the fear of a conservative Republican governing New York. We're blinded by the blue!
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